Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
